Reclassification in the air and resistance in the states: the decisive year for cannabis

The end of last year was one of those moments that raises eyebrows in the cannabis industry. From the White House, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to expedite the reclassification of marijuana, a change not seen since the Controlled Substances Act of 1970. Note: this isn't legalization, but it is a massive tax relief measure that could inject billions into a sector that has been struggling for years.

Currently, marijuana remains on Schedule I, at the same level as hard drugs like heroin. If the process is completed, it would move to Schedule III, which recognizes its medical use, although it maintains strict controls. This does not eliminate the conflict between state and federal laws, nor does it clarify when, or if, the Department of Justice will finalize the process. The timeline remains uncertain.

While cannabis celebrates cautiously, hemp has taken a hit. An amendment championed by Senator Mitch McConnell effectively slams the brakes on the $28 billion hemp industry. Unless Congress moves quickly, the ban will take effect this November. Attempts to regulate are underway, but the damage to market confidence has been done.

And as if that weren't enough, the path for cannabis is not without its obstacles. There are well-funded campaigns in states like Arizona, Massachusetts, and Maine to block recreational sales. Added to this is the legal threat from groups opposed to the reclassification, who already have high-powered lawyers ready to sue.

The message is clear: the marijuana reform movement is at a crossroads. Since 2023, no state has legalized adult use, and optimism is scarce. Even so, there are still options on the table for 2026. Florida could try again, although public support has declined. Hawaii is looking to surround its legislature with a direct referendum. Pennsylvania remains stalled due to a lack of political consensus. And in Virginia, a change in leadership could finally open the door to a regulated market.

In short: cannabis continues to advance, but not as easily. The momentum is there, but so are the headwinds. What happens in the next two years will determine whether this industry continues to grow or if it begins, little by little, to lose ground.